Grade is Just a Value Proxy
A short post to remind mine planning engineers that grade is just a proxy for value. You need to prove to yourself that it is a good proxy to use. Years ago, I used to present a value creation and #CutOffGrade seminar. I would start the seminar with the following three questions as a thinking exercise: Q1: Consider two blocks of ore (everything else being equal), which block has higher value: (a) 100 tonnes @ 2.0% Cu. (b) 100 tonnes @ 2.5% Cu. The obvious answer would be (b), as it contains 2.5 tonnes of copper, versus (a) with 2.0 tonnes of contained copper Q2: Consider the same two blocks of ore, but now with recovery information (and again everything else being equal), which block has higher value:: (a) 100 tonnes @ 2.0% Cu - with 80% recovery. (b) 100 tonnes @ 2.5% Cu – with 85% recovery. Again, the obvious answer would be (b), as it has 2.1 tonnes of recovered copper versus (a) with 1.6 tonnes of recovered copper. Q3: Now consider the same two blocks of ore, with recovery information and throughput information (and again everything else being equal), which block has higher value: (a) 100 tonnes @ 2.0% Cu - with 80% recovery, and SAG mill throughput of 100 tph (so soft ore, and/ore well fragmented). (b) 100 tonnes @ 2.5% Cu – with 85% recovery, and SAG mill throughput of 70 tph (so hard ore, and/or poorly fragmented). Now, the answer flips to (a), as (a) has a recovered copper per hour ‘value’ of 1.6 tonnes Cu per hour, and (b) has a ‘value’ of 1.49 tonnes Cu per hour. So, in this third situation, the lower grade, lower recovery ore provides 7% greater ‘value’ in time – and it is what we produce in time that ultimately determines the value (NPV is after-all a measure of ‘$s in time’). This leads to the ‘cash flow grade’ concept, quite well described by Dr Brett King in a paper he write back in 1999. (I loved this paper when I first read it, as I was ~90% there myself - and felt frustration that Brett had written it first!) The concept also leads to the necessary identification of system bottlenecks that need to be exploited (#TheoryOfConstraints) to increase the ‘value flow’. These concepts are effectively what Gerald Whittle has effectively based his business on: the cash flow grade concept – combined with TOC – and using software to solve complex systems that can result. So – grade is just a proxy for value. Sometimes it can be a good proxy. Other times it can be a poor proxy. I have only ever once seen a feasibility study use a cash flow grade for the mine schedule. And I will be first to acknowledge it is not an easy thing to use. It can’t be directly measured like a grade. It must be calculated from multiple factors – of which grade is just one factor. And we usually often don’t have reliable models for those other relevant factors. My advice: do as much economic value modelling of your ore value as you can, and find some approach to cut-off value that is practical and makes sense, AND captures some of that time value. References King, B. 1999, “Cash Flow Grades - Scheduling Rocks with Different Throughput Characteristics”, Proc. Conf. Optimising with Whittle, Perth 1999.


















































































