Mining's three-body problem

Cutoff, production rate, value - shift one, shift them all. How do you strike the right balance? A sensitivity analysis is commonplace in any technical report - assessing project value when a single variable changes in isolation. The problem is that a single variable seldom if ever changes in isolation. Every decision has a ripple effect. You can't optimize one variable without impacting the others. Yet many project charters etch a singular focus from the start- whether it’s minimizing capital intensity, maximizing throughput, or squeezing cost per tonne. As a result, studies tend fixate on technical hurdles, while overlooking business fundamentals and project delivery drivers. I'm not throwing shade at the importance of technical rigor. But a technically sound project that never gets built is just a good-looking spreadsheet. So how do we widen our focus? Start by modeling mining's three-body problem - cutoff, production rate, and value. The concept is simple: > Model scenarios using different cutoffs, methods, production rates > Estimate resulting NPVs > Identify where the value peaks It's powerful at concept, scoping or PFS, where the range of outcomes is still wide enough to test. For project teams, it exposes trade offs that aren't obvious in isolation. But the value of this method hinges on your assumptions. Cost curves, recovery factors, geotechnical constraints, commodity pricing. Get these wrong and your "value" is nothing but a mirage. Still, when grounded in good data and sound judgement, it can change the trajectory of a project. It moves the conversation from: “What can we do with this deposit?” to “What should we do to maximize its value?” It's not just a technical exercise. It's a strategy tool, best applied before your options narrow. The insights are worth the effort, but remember... Garbage in still means garbage out. Have you tried balancing mining's three-body problem? How did it influence your design or strategy?