In 2019, Benchmark’s Simon Moores told the US Senate, “we are in the midst of a global battery arms race.” Critical mineral mining and refining was emphasised as a key battleground in this race, with Moores saying “those that control these supply chains will hold the balance of industrial power for the 21st century in the auto and energy industries.” Especially in critical mineral refining, this balance of power is heavily skewed towards China due to the scale of investment at this critical point in the supply chain. How has China’s dominance evolved since Moores’ speech? Are other countries gaining market share in the upstream? And, is the US still a “bystander” as Moores said in 2019? China gains ground domestically and internationally Critical mineral supply chains are highly-concentrated within China. This trend has only continued since 2018, with China gaining ground in several minerals. For example, China accounted for 12% of global lithium mining in 2019, rising to 21% in 2025 thanks to the development of mica mines. Its share of lithium refining, too, has increased. One area in which domestic production has lost significant market share is nickel refining, in which the country dropped 16 percentage points between 2019 and 2025, partly due to Indonesia banning nickel ore exports. In response, China invested heavily in Indonesia’s nickel sector. In 2018, Indonesia accounted for 13% of refined nickel production. As of 2025, this has risen to 62%, of which 80% is Chinese-owned. China has also invested heavily in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Chinese-owned cobalt mines in the DRC account for 50% of global cobalt supply in 2025. Is the US still a bystander? Across battery raw material markets, the US accounts for just 0–2% of global mined and refined supply. However, a US success story can be found in rare earths, a key family of elements for electric vehicle motors and defence applications. In 2018, the US had no mined or refined production of these minerals. However, as of 2025 the US now has an 11% market share in their mining and a 6% share in their refining on a total rare earth oxide basis.