The Barrick-Mali Situation: A Lesson in Spotting Risks Early The situation between Barrick and Mali isn’t improving. Two weeks ago, Mali detained four senior Barrick employees, and now they've issued a warrant for the arrest of Barrick’s CEO. This issue didn’t come out of nowhere—it’s been building for over a year. By looking at what led to this, we can learn how to spot early warning signs and manage risks better in the future. The story really starts back in 2023, when Mali’s new government—formed after a coup—teamed up with Russia to plan a massive gold refinery. With a capacity of 200 tonnes per year, this refinery would triple Mali’s gold output and likely process all the country’s gold, giving the government full control of its production. Around the same time, Mali started discussing changes to its mining laws to align with this transition. Risk consultancy firm Control Risks flagged this early. Their 2024 risk outlook warned, “Government plans to build refining capacity in Burkina Faso and Mali could trigger a showdown with gold mining operators, which currently send their product abroad for refining.” That warning has become reality. While I believe this situation will eventually stabilize, it highlights how rising gold prices and tighter government finances can escalate risks for miners. The lesson here is to keep an eye on early signs of policy shifts—they can help you avoid or prepare for situations like this.